Sunday, November 9, 2008

Something on Politics

So the elections are over and America has elected Obama amid a lot of discussions and controversies. But for an instant let us assume :

If the Republicans had selected Ron Paul

Obama would have lost big time.

Contrary to all predictions, Obama is not winning in a landslide but on a very, very narrow margin of 0.5 - 3% and even in states that voted for him, there are many regions where he lost out big.

The country is totally divided.

If he had faced a serious adversary with the stature of a Ron Paul instead of that lame McCain who doesn't even uphold Republican - let alone Libertarian - values, he'd have been beaten by a very wide margin.

Ron Paul had enthusiastic supporters even among the Democrats and he would have represented "change" better than either of the other candidates. RADICAL change in a good way!
Posted by Vinod at 18:13 | 0 comments  
Labels:

Operations Everything!

Here's an excellent article about operations which appeared in the Boston Globle. Must read for everyone :-)
 

Operation Everything

It stocks your grocery store, schedules your favorite team's games, and helps plan your vacation. A primer on the most influential academic discipline you've never heard of.
Author:  Virginia Postrel, Globe Staff
TO THE CONSTERNATION of his colleagues, Mark Eisner once told a reporter that his discipline "is probably the most important field nobody's ever heard of." Indeed, it's not one that's likely to come up at dinner parties.
"I've been explaining for 40 years what operations research is," says Eisner, who is associate director of the school of operations research and industrial engineering at Cornell University. He defines O.R. as "the effective use of scarce resources under dynamic and uncertain conditions."
That may sound arcane, but it's pretty much the problem of living -- and certainly the central problem of economic life. O.R. isn't economics, however, though most economists have some O.R . training. It's applied mathematics. Since its origins in World War II to its recent resurgence fueled by the explosion in raw computing power, O.R. has developed analytical models of the tradeoffs and uncertainties involved in problems ranging from inventory management to police deployment, from scheduling sports leagues to determining how many people to call for jury duty.
Taking the kids to Disney World this summer? Operations research will be your invisible companion, scheduling the crews and aircraft, pricing the plane tickets and hotel rooms, even helping to design capacities on the theme park rides. If you use Orbitz to book your flights, an O.R. engine sifts among millions of options to find the cheapest fares. If you get directions to the hotel from MapQuest, another O.R. engine spits out the most direct route. If you ship souvenirs home, O.R. tells UPS which truck to put the packages on, exactly where on the truck the packages should go to make them fastest to load and unload, and what route the driver should follow to make his deliveries most efficiently.
At the park, O.R. can even let you skip the lines for the most popular rides. For Epcot's new Mission Space ride, for instance, you can join a "virtual queue" using the FastPass system introduced in 1999. A computer issues a pass that tells you when to claim your spot at the front of the line. But it doesn't just tell you to come back after an arbitrary length of time, say, an hour and 15 minutes. Rather, to calculate a return time for each guest in the face of constantly shifting waiting times, the virtual queue's software takes into account how many people are standing in the real line, how many are already in the virtual queue, and how many of each group the park wants to admit each time the ride opens up.
"That's the O.R. piece," says Irv Lustig, manager of technical services for ILOG Direct, a software and O.R. consulting company headquartered in Gentilly, France, and Mountain View, Calif. He visited the parks in February to see how Disney uses O.R. and woo the company as an ILOG client.
After decades in which the field's progress was mostly theoretical, computers have finally gotten powerful enough to collect the data and deliver the problem-solving solutions that O.R. has been promising since the heady days of the New Frontier. Beginning in the 1980s, when American Airlines demonstrated that airlines could save billions of dollars using O.R. techniques to design their schedules, O.R. has become an increasingly important, though largely invisible, contributor to rising productivity.
"What we talked about when I was a young graduate student are still the things that we talk about now, except then we could only talk about them," says Jack Muckstadt, a Cornell professor who entered the field in the early 1960s. "Now we can actually do them."
Indeed, when Irv Lustig got his doctorate in operations research from Stanford in 1987, his thesis was controversial. Although it had the obligatory theorems and proofs, it also included computational work that some members of Stanford's O.R. department (now its department of management science and engineering) thought too lowbrow.
By contrast, he says, today O.R. students who want to just do theory have a hard time. "Everybody wants to know, `What does it mean on a computer?"' says Lustig, whose work has included creating the National Football League's schedule. "That's a big culture change."
. . .
O.R. started as a way of bringing scientific thinking to the complex problems of warfare: How do you find enemy submarines? How many bombers do you need to make sure a critical target is destroyed? When, where, and with how many troops and what equipment should you make an amphibious landing?
In World War II, scientists from a wide range of fields attacked military problems with a potent combination of empiricism and mathematical models. When airplanes came back riddled with holes from enemy attacks, for instance, the intuitive response was to reinforce the armor where the holes were. But, noted the scientists, those were the planes that made it back. They didn't need more armor where they were hit. The real challenge was to figure out the places that had been hit in the planes that went down.
"It was a lively, informal, paradoxical exchange of ideas between amateur and professional war makers and it produced some brilliant successes," wrote James R. Newman in "The World of Mathematics," published in 1956, which cited O.R.'s role in simplifying supply lines, providing a quantitative basis for weapons evaluation, and so on.
But O.R. didn't live up to its postwar hype, its implicit promise to "solve everything." Militarily, it could attack certain tactical problems but, as the Vietnam War illustrated, O.R . wasn't the right tool for addressing strategic issues of where, or why, to fight. Even for mundane business questions, like how to design sales routes or what inventories to hold, O.R. specialists often lacked the data and computing power to turn their models into practical results. By the 1970s, the Vietnam War had made O.R.'s military applications and Pentagon funding suspect in universities, and businesses were gradually disbanding their O.R. groups.
For decades, the academic discipline retreated to theory. Scholars built their reputations on mathematical proofs, largely abandoning empiricism or real-world problem solving. Some O.R. veterans blame the pure-math imperialism common to many theory-based fields for this retreat.
"Some time in the 1970s or 1980s, O.R. was in a sense hijacked by mathematicians who insisted on imposing their view of rigorous mathematics onto the field. This placed much less emphasis on modeling and empirical work," says Richard C. Larson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering and engineering systems at MIT and for 15 years the codirector of the institute's Operations Research Center, which recently celebrated its 50th anniversary. "In some OR journals today, the only empirical data are, `Date of submission' and `date of acceptance."'
Other O.R. scholars argue that theory was the only way to advance the field in a world of scarce data. "A paper would start, `Here is an interesting problem. If I had all these data, this is what I could have done.' So the problem was challenging, but the focus was on theory, because the data to support it did not exist," says David Simchi-Levi, a professor of engineering systems at MIT.
But in the 1990s, the data became available. Now corporate information technology systems collect unprecedented amounts of data -- on costs, sales, and inventories, in itemized detail and real time. Wal-Mart and Procter & Gamble, for instance, know exactly how many 200-ounce bottles of liquid Tide Free have sold in which stores today. That information in turn determines how many new bottles are shipped from which warehouse tomorrow.
. . .
Simchi-Levi exemplifies the new generation of O.R. scholar-practitioners. He entered the discipline as a theoretical mathematician "focusing on algorithms and the theory behind different logistics problems," but was drawn into applications in 1992 when the New York City school district called, looking for help with its bus schedules.
Intrigued by the enormous potential of applying O.R. techniques to logistics problems, in 1995 he and his wife Edith, a software developer, started a Chicago-based company called Logic Tools to apply O.R. techniques to supply-chain problems. Tweaking such mundane but strategically critical decisions as where to site plants, when to restock, and so on, can provide enormous productivity boosts.
In his work, says Simchi-Levi, mathematical theory and business applications complement each other. "When I go to a company, or when we develop a new product," he says, "I am familiar with the state of the art in terms of engines and algorithms. For instance, the inventory positioning technology is very, very recent, even in academia."
As ubiquitous as it is invisible, O.R. is a crucial ingredient in the productivity surge often credited to information technology. "The real driver of the productivity resurgence that we've had since 1995 has been the way the technology has allowed changes in business processes and the reorganization of work," says Erik Brynjolfsson, an MIT economist. "For every dollar of [information technology] there are 9 to 10 dollars of organizational change, human capital, and other investments."
O.R. is only part of that story, since companies often have to make major organizational changes to reap its benefits. But without O.R. problem-solving, many management innovations couldn't take place.
"Having data doesn't give you productivity. Having better decisions gives you productivity. So if O.R. is all about the science of making better decisions, then this is clearly an area in which we'd like to claim preeminence," says Michael Trick, a professor at the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie-Mellon and the former president of the professional society INFORMS, the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences.
Trick's consulting projects include designing each year's Atlantic Coast Conference men's and women's basketball schedules. Arranging 16 games among the nine men's teams may sound easy, but it requires systematically sorting through hundreds of millions of possible combinations looking for the best way to satisfy dozens of conflicting goals.
"You don't want to play too many consecutive home games. You don't want to play too many consecutive away games. You have to make sure that every team has the same number of weekend home games," explains Trick. "There are various games that have to be played -- Duke-North Carolina is always played on the same day. And then the TV networks, who are paying for all this, have strong views on how they would like games to line up, so they can create a successful TV schedule. You don't want to have all the good games on the same weekend. You want to spread them out, so that every weekend there's a hot ACC game. All those things go into play."
Thomas L. Magnanti, the dean of engineering at MIT and previously the codirector of the institute's Operations Research Center, is optimistic about the field's future. Until recently, most O.R. scholars worked either in business schools, where the field is usually called management science, or in departments of O.R. or industrial engineering. Now, he says, departments like mechanical engineering and electrical engineering are hiring O.R. specialists.
Magnanti calls O.R. "a liberal education in a technological world." Just as a classical education once prepared students for a wide range of endeavors, from theology and science to diplomacy and warfare, he argues, so the habits and tools of O.R. are widely applicable to contemporary problems.
"You can do finance today, manufacturing tomorrow, telecommunications the day after. You can move from field to field and make contributions that have impact on all those fields," says Magnanti. "We do health care. We do criminal justice. You name it, we do it."
Posted by Vinod at 14:02 | 0 comments  
Labels: ,
Sunday, November 2, 2008

Why is economy crashing when we really aren't running out of anything?

We aren't facing a shortage of oil, food, wheat, rice(which usually happens during a season of drought, flood or earthquake).

We aren't really facing a shortage of any kind of consumer goods. The world isn't ending tomorrow because of the news of a meteor hitting the earth. WE aren't having an alien invasion, property is not being destroyed because of a nuclear holocaust or a world war.


So what is the problem?

Why is Stock Market falling, and why is failing of Stock Market means we can't get the goods which are there, and we are ready to work to get them.

If anyone here remembers USSR used to have problems like this with their central planning.

They had enough food, but their distribution was not possible because of planning screw ups.

A whole railway engine is ready out there, except for its wheels, because Wheel manufacturing unit in Siberia is facing a shortage of Nuts and Bolts, which are being manufactured by a factory in Kirk which is producing nuts and bolts 24/7, just not for the wheel factory.

Similarly quasi socialist countries like India face food problems all time sometimes they face massive food shortage or over production because they tried to have price control on genuine prices.

The Market system is failing because of massive distortions of the market through manipulation of Money supply.

Sure my mainstream economics friends will say "But dude increasing the money supply actually increases the demand and stimulates economy", well yes, and taking performance enhancement drugs ACTUALLY INCREASE your performance, but what really happens??

Everytime you use drugs you will be better focused in studies in your work. But once the effect comes down, you will become a bigger sucker than a non-drug user person.

You may again take another dose of drugs to increase your performance, but then again when effects wains out you will become a deadbeat.

If you do too much drugs, for a long time, you might Overdose and die, or simply die because of shortening of your life.

Manipulation of Money supply is the same. The Recent Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman claims that this theory of money supply cycle is nothing but a "Hangover theory" and it relies on people believing that their good times will definitely result in equal amount of bad time.

But this is still much more plausible theory than "Menstrual Period" theory of Paul Krugman(actually it was originally of John M Keynes) which claims that the boom-bust cycles are naturally inherent in Capitalism.

There are some industries which are naturally having boom-bust cycles, like Valentine's day Card industry.

IF you were making Valentine's day cards, your business will be in a relative bust, compared to around 14th feb when it will be in a boom.

But these kind of booms and busts can be easily accounted for with no effects on overall economy, by mechanically redirecting the wealth to another booming industry once after 14th feb each year, and give it back to the Card industry right before 14th feb.


Actually these booms and busts are not really inherent in Capitalism, rather in the production of Fiat dollars. Federal Reserve is producing Dollars at a massive rate, because of increasing demand , during a boom, then during a bust, they have to reduce the production of Dollars.

But since dollars are the medium of exchange for every other commodity, it becomes impossible to exchange products in a consistent manner with dollars with these cycles.

The whole Market is unable to work because of all those extra dollars floating around. Then market adjusts itself for those dollars and now the economy again goes on its natural order, until its again filled up by extra dollars by the Feds. 
 

Bank has deposits of Rs 1000, cash of Rs 100 and has given loans of Rs 900.

Pundits say that it is cool, as every depositor will NOT come and ask for cash on the same day. What a baloney !!

Say bank has loaned Rs 100 to nine borrowers adding to Rs 900. Say one borrower goes bust. So now bank as asset is only Rs 900 . Now every depositor will think that if other 9 go for withdrawal , the bank would go bust and he would be left with nothing. Apply simple game theory rules --- and all will run to the bank. So only a person with IQ > 1000 will say "let bank have only 10% cash as every depositor will not ask for all the money on the same day". My IQ is about 105. I say this is baloney. But bankers have bribed MPs, Ministers and also give sponsorship to eminent intellectuals. And so they all support fractional reserve banking. The solution is to create a procedure by which citizens can DIRECTLY and EASILY enact laws so that citizens can abolish fractional reserve banking.

We have stocks, mutual funds, bonds etc. If there is no fractional reserve system, stock market will not have huge bulls, but would also not see huge bears And thus it would become stable financial source with good return and of course some risk.

So it is banking which making stock market unstable, not other way round. People say : stock market crashed and so banks are facing problems. WRONG. It were banks who created huge amount of money and that money created bulls. And when could not keep issuing money, bear came. But if banks did not have power to create money, there would have been only tiny bulls and tiny bears, and would be restricted to individuals companies only --- not whole market.

Credit led growth is always unsustainable. It's actually equivalent to ignorance if not fraud.

See how it impacts real demand.

7 years ago we planned for a house. We didn't have money. We arranged it from all possible loans and debts. Now we have our own home.

If we see how it impact economy, what I see is -
When we purchased house, we caused extra money flow in market. Money flowed to many people (constructor, meson, electrician, cement, iron, bank, debtors). These people would have experienced increase in income and thus consumption urge.

Businessman, would have put some extra effort (in the form of fixed and variable investment expenditure), thinking that they are experiencing natural increase in demand because they cannto correlate it to me or my loans. While variable expenditure/investment is justifiable, Capital expenditure is misguided. This sudden surge in demand was one off event which will not be repeated in future (by me).

But, this is not end of story. You know, all my (and my family's) earnings have been going to banks. Our current demand (or say demand for last 7 years) is tooo low. We cannot efford any expenditure because we are repaying money to bank (and bank would be repaying it back to RBI from where it took it originally).

This must have deteriorated business calculations for many businesses.

In a way, this loan exercise caused a sudden boom in market. And, then a a long period of downturn. Now suppose if I had gone bust (After all nobody assured me that I will never go bust). Bank would not have been able to recover all amount. It will suffer losses.

I know, I alone doesn't decide such big market. But, just imagine, how much chaos and uncertainity this whole unnaturally enlarged credit market is creating.

I hope what I wrote makes sense here.
Posted by Vinod at 15:05 | 0 comments  
Labels:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)